The climate chief, Marina Silva, has urged every country to demonstrate the courage needed to address the imperative of a global fossil fuel phaseout, describing the development of a roadmap as an “ethical” response to the climate crisis.
The minister stressed, however, that participation in this endeavor would be optional and “self-determined” for willing governments.
This issue stands as one of the most contentious matters at the UN climate summit in the host country, with countries split over whether and how such a roadmap can be discussed. Hosting the event, Brazil has maintained a carefully neutral position on what can be placed on the formal schedule.
The official voiced support for the possibility of a roadmap, without directly pledging Brazil to it. The minister remarked: “When we have a situation that is quite grim, it is good that we have a map. But the guide does not force us to travel, or to advance.”
In an interview, she added: “The map is an response to our scientific knowledge [of the climate emergency]. It is an moral response.”
Scores of nations meeting in Belém for the global climate conference, which is starting its second week, are aiming to establish how a global phaseout of oil, gas, and coal could work. These nations hope to advance a historic resolution reached two years ago at COP28 to “transition away from non-renewable energy sources.”
The commitment had no a timetable or details on the way it could be realized, and even though it was passed unanimously, several countries have later tried to disavow the pledge. Efforts last year to elaborate on its real-world meaning were blocked by resistance from oil-dependent nations at another UN summit.
Consequently, there was no reference of the shift away from carbon fuels in the final agreement of that conference.
Because of this, the host has been wary of demands by certain countries to include the phaseout on the agenda for COP30. But the minister has worked hard behind the scenes to make sure the topic could be talked about at the summit outside the official agenda.
The minister convinced Brazil’s leader, and he gave mention repeatedly to the need to “shift from dependence on fossil fuels” at the global leaders' meeting that came before the conference, and at the start of the event.
“The issue is a matter that we understand at some point had to be put forward, because it is the only way to address the problem from the root,” Marina Silva explained. “We acknowledge that it is not easy, and we must not sell unrealistic expectations. Raising the topic is courageous, and I wish [to see] this courage from everyone, from producers and consumers.”
The nation had not started the call for a transition, she clarified, because that had been done at the earlier summit. Rather, it was allowing the discussions to occur in accordance with what some countries wished. “We know these topics are delicate. We will provide the opportunity to talk about it,” the minister added.
Time is insufficient at the summit to draw up a detailed plan, a process the minister said could take several years because many countries confronted complicated issues around dependence on fossil fuels, or aimed to use the revenue from exporting oil and gas to fund their economic growth.
“Brazil raises the subject, because it is both a producing nation and consumer,” she said. “But Brazil is different, because Brazil, if it wants to, does not have to depend on fossil fuels. We have to understand that there are some that depend on fossil fuels in their economies and lack simple alternatives, and others where oil and gas are the basis of their economic structure.
“To be just is to be fair to everyone, but the fundamental, primordial justice is to avoid being unjust to the Earth, because it is our shared home.”
If the proposal receives sufficient support, the summit could set up a forum in which the process of drawing up a strategy to the transition could begin.
The process would require dialogue with all participating nations to the UN climate treaty and criteria for how the process would unfold, Silva explained. “Once we have standards, a governance structure can be developed; after we have a plan, and create safeguards to be able to build trust in the process, I believe that with these elements we can transform positive concepts into actions that are clearer, and more concrete.”
It is uncertain that a proposal to begin developing a roadmap would be accepted at the conference, although it may not need the official approval of the summit, which operates by unanimous agreement and can be hijacked by particular groups. COP analysts have indicated they believe there could be backing for such a idea from about sixty countries, but there are thought to be at least 40 opposed. A total of one hundred ninety-five countries participating at the talks.
“Despite being the primary source of global warming, carbon-based energy are about the most divisive subject there is within the international climate talks, so to see a sizable coalition of nations openly backing a path to achieving worldwide phaseout is in itself highly significant.”
“In simple terms, there’s no route to a world where temperature rise remains below 1.5C in which nations cannot to talk about fossil fuel phaseout.”
“We require this wording for real in this conversation. It’s highly illogical that we talk about all topics but then when fossil fuels are the real problem.”
Discussions carried on on the weekend on four unresolved topics that have not yet been included into the official schedule: trade, transparency, finance and how to address the shortfall between the emissions cuts nations have planned and those required to keep to the 1.5C temperature target.
A summit chair promised a “note” that would address these matters, after discussions – which have been underway since the start of the week – were unresolved. The official called on nations to adopt the “mutirão” spirit, referring to one of cooperation and constructive discussion.
Progress on other substantive issues – including adjustment to the impacts of the climate emergency, the fair shift for those impacted by the move to a green economic system and how to build institutional capacity in developing countries – proceeded productively, the host said.
Brazil’s chief negotiator stated the detailed phase of the COP process was approaching completion, and the high-level stage – when ministers who have the power to alter their nations' positions join – was starting.
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