Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.