The Failed Attempt to Stage UN Climate Summit Looks Chaotic – But It May Actually Be the Optimal Outcome Achievable

Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted campaign to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a summit obstructed from the top if his government led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.