The French Political Ongoing Crisis: The Dawn of a New Political Reality

Back in October 2022, when Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he became the fifth consecutive UK leader to take up the position in six years.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So what term captures what is unfolding in France, now on its sixth prime minister in two years – three of them in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the price for his administration's continuation.

But it is, in the best case, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is locked in a ongoing governmental crisis, the scale of which it has not witnessed for many years – possibly not since the start of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no easy escape.

Minority Rule

Essential context: from the moment Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament separated into three opposing factions – the left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – without any group holding a clear majority.

At the same time, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and budget shortfall are now nearly double the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to approve a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the leader named his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from allies and opponents alike.

So much so that the following day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he cited political rigidity, saying “partisan attitudes” and “personal ambitions” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a last-ditch effort to salvage cross-party backing – a task, to put it mildly, not without complications.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The president’s office announced the president would name a fresh premier 48 hours later.

Macron kept his promise – and on that Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the nation's opposing groups were “fuelling division” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Could he survive – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the 39-year-old PM spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were waiting for: Macron’s flagship reform would be frozen until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already on board, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be demanding further compromises. “This,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, similar to the Socialists, the right-leaning parties are themselves split on dealing with the administration – some are still itching to topple it.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, like his predecessors, finished.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look grim.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his successor would disband the assembly and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Surveys show the future president will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, absolute victory is obsolete, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that cultural shift will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”